Shkruar nga Claudio Paudice<\/p>\n
Si po dikton konflikti n\u00eb Gjirin Persik rritjen eksponenciale t\u00eb \u00e7mimeve t\u00eb naft\u00ebs dhe pse ekspert\u00ebt parashikojn\u00eb nj\u00eb skenar \u00e7mimesh 3-shifrore, q\u00eb mund t\u00eb gjunj\u00ebzoj\u00eb ekonomin\u00eb globale…<\/p>\n
T\u00eb thuash se kjo \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb pyetje prej nj\u00eb milion dollar\u00ebsh \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb n\u00ebnvler\u00ebsim i skajsh\u00ebm; vlera e saj reale llogaritet n\u00eb mij\u00ebra trilion\u00eb dollar\u00eb. Pyetja q\u00eb bankat qendrore, qeverit\u00eb, fondet sovrane dhe investitor\u00ebt po bluajn\u00eb pa pushim q\u00eb nga fillimi i tensioneve me Iranin, mbetet ende pap\u00ebrgjigje: sa e ashp\u00ebr dhe sa afatgjat\u00eb do t\u00eb jet\u00eb bllokada e Ngushtic\u00ebs s\u00eb Hormuzit?<\/p>\n
P\u00ebr her\u00eb t\u00eb par\u00eb n\u00eb histori, trafiku detar po ndalet n\u00eb pik\u00ebn m\u00eb strategjike t\u00eb bot\u00ebs p\u00ebr l\u00ebvizjen e naft\u00ebs, gazit natyror t\u00eb l\u00ebngsh\u00ebm (LNG) dhe karburanteve. Nj\u00eb bllokim i till\u00eb nuk kishte ndodhur kurr\u00eb, as gjat\u00eb krizave t\u00eb famshme t\u00eb viteve 1970.<\/p>\n
Sot jemi n\u00eb nj\u00eb terren t\u00eb panjohur, ku ndikimi i mundsh\u00ebm mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb tre her\u00eb m\u00eb i madh n\u00eb shkall\u00eb sesa embargoja arabe e vitit 1973 apo problemet e furnizimit n\u00eb vitin 1979 pas Revolucionit Iranian.<\/p>\n
Aktualisht, Garda Revolucionare e Iranit (IRGC) ka bllokuar kalimin e anijeve tregtare p\u00ebrmes Hormuzit. Pes\u00eb cisterna nafte jan\u00eb sh\u00ebnjestruar tashm\u00eb nga dron\u00ebt e Teheranit, nd\u00ebrsa uzinat dhe rafinerit\u00eb n\u00eb Arabin\u00eb Saudite dhe Katar jan\u00eb sulmuar.<\/p>\n
Riadi ka mbyllur rafinerin\u00eb \u201cRas Tanura\u201d, e cila p\u00ebrpunon 500.000 fu\u00e7i n\u00eb dit\u00eb, nd\u00ebrsa Doha ka pezulluar prodhimin e LNG-s\u00eb dhe derivateve t\u00eb saj si ureja e polimeret. Iraku ka reduktuar prodhimin e naft\u00ebs bruto n\u00eb fush\u00ebn Rumaila me 700.000 fu\u00e7i n\u00eb dit\u00eb dhe ka njoftuar se r\u00ebnia e prodhimit ditor do t\u00eb amplifikohet m\u00eb tej n\u00ebse cisternat nuk mund t\u00eb l\u00ebvizin lirsh\u00ebm.<\/p>\n
Gjigant\u00ebt e transportit detar si MSC, Maersk, CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd dhe Cosco kan\u00eb pezulluar tranzitin n\u00eb Gjirin Persik deri n\u00eb zbutjen e tensioneve. Shqet\u00ebsimi kryesor nuk jan\u00eb raketat, por dron\u00ebt iranian\u00eb, t\u00eb cil\u00ebt jan\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb v\u00ebshtir\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u2019u zbuluar dhe asgj\u00ebsuar me arm\u00eb kund\u00ebrajrore.<\/p>\n
Pesha e k\u00ebsaj pike gjeopolitike \u00ebsht\u00eb marramend\u00ebse: 20 p\u00ebr qind e tregtis\u00eb globale t\u00eb naft\u00ebs bruto kalon p\u00ebrmes Hormuzit, bashk\u00eb me nj\u00eb sasi t\u00eb ngjashme t\u00eb gazit t\u00eb l\u00ebngsh\u00ebm. Bler\u00ebsit kryesor\u00eb jan\u00eb tregjet aziatike, t\u00eb udh\u00ebhequra nga Kina.<\/p>\n
P\u00ebr Evrop\u00ebn, edhe pse vet\u00ebm 9 p\u00ebr qind e furnizimeve me naft\u00eb bruto kalojn\u00eb p\u00ebrmes k\u00ebsaj gryke, situata b\u00ebhet kritike te produktet e rafinuara, ku 40 p\u00ebr qind e importeve t\u00eb naft\u00ebs dhe karburantit t\u00eb avion\u00ebve p\u00ebr BE-n\u00eb varen direkt nga ky kalim.<\/p>\n
Agjencit\u00eb e vler\u00ebsimit si S&P dhe Moody\u2019s, theksojn\u00eb se nj\u00eb nd\u00ebrprerje e zgjatur jo vet\u00ebm q\u00eb do t\u00eb stabilizonte \u00e7mimin mbi 100 dollar\u00eb p\u00ebr fu\u00e7i, por do t\u00eb krijonte nj\u00eb presion t\u00eb madh n\u00eb kanalet e kreditit, duke nxitur rrezikun e nj\u00eb tronditjeje financiare globale.<\/p>\n
Historia na kujton se n\u00eb vitin 1973, shtetet arabe t\u00eb OPEC-ut ul\u00ebn prodhimin si hakmarrje p\u00ebr mb\u00ebshtetjen amerikane ndaj Izraelit, duke e detyruar presidentin amerikan Richard Nixon t\u00eb zbatonte programe racionimi.<\/p>\n
Di\u00e7ka e ngjashme ndodhi n\u00eb vitin 1979 me Revolucionin e Khomeinit. Megjithat\u00eb, kurr\u00eb m\u00eb par\u00eb tregtia nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb bllokuar plot\u00ebsisht si\u00e7 po ndodh k\u00ebto dit\u00eb. Edhe pse Donald Trump ka deklaruar se Marina Amerikane mund t\u00eb shoq\u00ebroj\u00eb cisternat, ekspert\u00ebt e \u00cball Street Journal mbeten skeptik\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Kapaciteti i Marin\u00ebs \u00ebsht\u00eb i kufizuar p\u00ebrball\u00eb volumit masiv t\u00eb anijeve, nd\u00ebrsa garancit\u00eb federale t\u00eb sigurimit nuk mbulojn\u00eb vler\u00ebn e plot\u00eb t\u00eb ngarkesave, d\u00ebmet nga vonesat apo kostot e devijimeve.<\/p>\n
Pa ndalimin e sulmeve t\u00eb Teheranit kund\u00ebr infrastruktur\u00ebs, v\u00ebshtir\u00eb se operacionet e rafinimit dhe ngarkimit do t\u00eb rifillojn\u00eb me kapacitet t\u00eb plot\u00eb. Si nj\u00eb rrug\u00eb alternative, Riadi po p\u00ebrpiqet t\u00eb shfryt\u00ebzoj\u00eb tubacionin Lindje-Per\u00ebndim q\u00eb p\u00ebrfundon n\u00eb Detin e Kuq, por sulmet e d\u00ebshtuara ndaj rafineris\u00eb \u201cRas Tanura\u201d tregojn\u00eb se zemra e sistemit energjetik saudit mbetet n\u00ebn rrezik.<\/p>\n
Analist\u00ebt e Goldman Sachs, parashikojn\u00eb se n\u00ebse v\u00ebllimet mbeten t\u00eb pandryshuara edhe p\u00ebr pes\u00eb jav\u00eb, \u00e7mimi i naft\u00ebs n\u00eb burs\u00ebn Brent do t\u00eb arrij\u00eb menj\u00ebher\u00eb 100 dollar\u00eb. Strateg\u00ebt e JPMorgan, shtojn\u00eb se n\u00ebse konflikti zgjat mbi tre jav\u00eb, prodhuesit do t\u00eb mbushin kapacitetet magazinuese dhe do t\u00eb detyrohen t\u00eb ndalojn\u00eb prodhimin, duke e \u00e7uar \u00e7mimin n\u00eb nivelin 100-120 dollar\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Saul Kavonic, nj\u00eb nga ekspert\u00ebt kryesor\u00eb t\u00eb energjis\u00eb, beson se nj\u00eb bllokim i plot\u00eb q\u00eb zgjat disa jav\u00eb mund t\u00eb ket\u00eb nj\u00eb ndikim tre her\u00eb m\u00eb t\u00eb madh se krizat e r\u00ebnda t\u00eb viteve 1970. Ai paralajm\u00ebron se mbi 100 milion\u00eb fu\u00e7i mund t\u00eb mos arrijn\u00eb n\u00eb tregje, \u00e7ka do t\u2019i shtynte \u00e7mimet drejt shifrave treshifrore.<\/p>\n
Sot, tregu i naft\u00ebs \u00ebsht\u00eb global dhe shum\u00eb i financuar. Paq\u00ebndrueshm\u00ebria p\u00ebrhapet me shpejt\u00ebsi t\u00eb menj\u00ebhershme n\u00eb \u00e7do moment, prandaj, edhe tronditjet e vogla t\u00eb furnizimit shkaktojn\u00eb rritje eksponenciale t\u00eb \u00e7mimeve n\u00eb pikat e karburanteve.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb kushtet kur ekonomia amerikane p\u00ebrballet me rritje t\u00eb ngadalt\u00eb dhe inflacion t\u00eb lart\u00eb, nj\u00eb mbyllje totale do t\u00eb thoshte humbje prej 20 milion\u00eb fu\u00e7i nafte n\u00eb dit\u00eb, duke e \u00e7uar bot\u00ebn drejt nj\u00eb epoke t\u00eb re stagflacioni.<\/p>\n
N\u00eb fund, gjith\u00e7ka varet nga evolucioni i konfliktit. Nd\u00ebrkoh\u00eb, tonet nga Teherani mbeten sfiduese. Garda Revolucionare ka deklaruar kontrollin e plot\u00eb mbi Ngushtic\u00ebn e Hormuzit dhe parashikon q\u00eb \u00e7mimi i naft\u00ebs do t\u00eb arrij\u00eb s\u00eb shpejti 200 dollar\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Ata paralajm\u00ebrojn\u00eb se \u00e7do l\u00ebvizje e SHBA-s\u00eb n\u00eb rajon, do t\u00eb sjell\u00eb shkat\u00ebrrimin e plot\u00eb t\u00eb infrastruktur\u00ebs ushtarake dhe ekonomike. Bota mbetet n\u00eb pritje, n\u00eb nj\u00eb gjendje pezull mes nj\u00eb krize t\u00eb menaxhueshme dhe nj\u00eb katastrofe energjetike q\u00eb mund t\u00eb riform\u00ebsoj\u00eb stuktur\u00ebn e ekonomis\u00eb globale brenda pak jav\u00ebsh.\/Pamfleti nga \u201cHuffington Post Italia\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Shkruar nga Claudio Paudice Si po dikton konflikti n\u00eb Gjirin Persik rritjen eksponenciale t\u00eb \u00e7mimeve t\u00eb naft\u00ebs dhe pse ekspert\u00ebt parashikojn\u00eb nj\u00eb skenar \u00e7mimesh 3-shifrore, q\u00eb mund t\u00eb gjunj\u00ebzoj\u00eb ekonomin\u00eb globale… T\u00eb thuash se kjo \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb pyetje prej nj\u00eb milion dollar\u00ebsh \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb n\u00ebnvler\u00ebsim i skajsh\u00ebm; vlera e saj reale llogaritet n\u00eb mij\u00ebra trilion\u00eb […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":18230,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-18206","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-latest-articles"],"blocksy_meta":[],"yoast_head":"\n